Using Optimization and Simulation Techniques to Estimate Initial Weevil Populations

In this paper, a mathematical programming and simulation method is used to estimate the number of weevils (Neochetina bruchi Hustache, and N. eichhorniae Warner) necessary to initialize the INSECT model which simulates the biological control of waterhyacinth by the weevils. The objective is to estimate the initial input values for the adult population so that the sum of the absolute differences between the observed and the simulated numbers of weevils is minimized. In general, the simulated values using the initial values obtained from the mathematical programming problem were within the 95% confidence intervals of the actual field observations. Also, in many cases, the simulation results indicated trends similar to those indicated by the field data in both timing and the numbers of weevils

COTGAME: Cotton Insect Pest Management Simulation Game

An interactive version of the Cotton and Insect Management (CIM) model was developed to aid individuals in improving their insect pest management decision making skills. This version, COTGAME, allowed the user to encounter situations and make decisions during the simulated cotton crop growing season. The intermediate results of these decisions were immediately delivered in the form of a report on the current status of the crop and insect populations. Based on the information presented in this status report, the user would make additional management decisions and take tactical actions. Once the harvest date had been reached, the economics of the simulated production season was presented to allow the user to evaluate the decisions. The use of COTGAME has been a way to apply the technology in a detailed crop growth model to improving insect pest management skills

A Computer Simulation Model of Waterhyacinth and Weevil Interactions

A personal computer simulation model termed INSECT has been developed to evaluate biological control of waterhyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes (Mart.) Solms.) by two species of weevil (Neochetina eichhorniae Warner, and N. bruchi Hustache). The model results were compared with the data from three different locations. For each data set, the simulated plant biomass, adult and larva populations were plotted aqainst the 95% confidence intervals of the actual field observations. In many cases, the simulation results were within the 95% confidence intervals, and especially during the growing season, they indicated trends similar to those seen in the field data. However, there were discrepancies in both the magnitude and the trend for early and the late periods of the year. These initial results suggest that development of a model to simulate the impact of a biocontrol agent on waterhyacinth populations is a feasible approach to better understand the interactions within this control system

Improve Efficiency of a FMS Cell Through Use of a Computer

In an independent study project at Marquette University, computer simulation modeling was used to model a flexible manufacturing system (FMS) cell to achieve an increase in: 1. the utilization of the resources, and 2. the productivity of the cell by reducing the manufacturing lead time of the finished parts. The cell is currently set up to produce 3 components (base, jaw, and screw) for the assembly of a vise. The simulation of the Milwaukee Area Technical College flexible manufacturing cell was performed using the Simulation Language for Alternative Modeling (Pritsker, 1986) and the Extended Simulation Support System (Standridge and Pritsker, 1987), which adds a relational database management system and animation capabilities to the simulation. This simulation model showed that a 24% increase in productivity would be realized by moving the 2nd step in the processing of the screw all the way to the end, after completion of both the base and the screw

A Computer-Simulation Model of Water-Hyacinth and Weevil Interactions

A personal computer simulation model termed INSECT has been developed to evaluate biological control of waterhyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes (Mart.) Solms.) by two species of weevil (Neochetina eichhorniae Warner, and N. bruchi Hustache). The model results were compared with the data from three different locations. For each data set, the simulated plant biomass, adult and larva populations were plotted aqainst the 95% confidence intervals of the actual field observations. In many cases, the simulation results were within the 95% confidence intervals, and especially during the growing season, they indicated trends similar to those seen in the field data. However, there were discrepancies in both the magnitude and the trend for early and the late periods of the year. These initial results suggest that development of a model to simulate the impact of a biocontrol agent on waterhyacinth populations is a feasible approach to better understand the interactions within this control system